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Free Bet and Hedge Calculator
Model a stake-not-returned free bet on one selection and an optional cash hedge on the mutually exclusive opposite outcome. Enter both odds yourself; results are not guaranteed.
How it works & examplesUnderstand the calculation
A stake-not-returned free bet is not the same as cash
With a stake-not-returned free bet, the promotional stake is excluded from the winning return. A 50-unit free bet at decimal odds of 3.00 therefore produces 50 × (3 − 1) = 100 if it wins, not 150. A cash hedge is different: its stake comes from your own balance and must be included in the net-result comparison.
Stake-not-returned bets can have a lower withdrawable value than their headline credit; estimate conversion in Bonus Bet / Bet Credit Conversion Calculator.
Use the two result scenarios to see what happens when the free-bet selection wins or the opposing cash bet wins. The comparison only works when those selections cover the intended outcomes and settle consistently. It does not automatically cover a draw, fees, stake limits or an exchange lay bet. Check the promotion's stake-return rule before choosing the model.
Maths & verification
Estimate a stake-not-returned free bet and hedge stake against opposite decimal odds. Compare both outcome profits using manual assumptions.
Try the simulator below. Input values stay in your browser; no account or money is involved.
Model assumptions: No. Virtual games use declared teaching models. Verify any actual operator’s payout rules independently.
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How to use the tool
Calculate the cash hedge needed to equalize two possible outcomes for a stake-not-returned free bet.
- Enter free bet face value and its decimal odds.
- Enter decimal odds for the opposite outcome at the hedge bookmaker.
- Compare an equal-profit hedge with your custom cash hedge and both net outcomes.
Understanding your result
A 100-unit stake-not-returned free bet at 3.00 creates 200 units of profit if it wins. At 2.00 opposing odds, a 100-unit cash hedge gives 100 units of net profit in either outcome.
Scope and limitations
This covers a binary, exhaustive and mutually exclusive market. Stakes are not returned on free-bet wins. It excludes stake-returned tokens, fees, taxes, exchange commissions, bonus expiry, voids, pushes and mismatched settlement rules.
Before you rely on the result
- How the calculation works
Formulas, assumptions, rounding and model limits are documented on the methodology page.
- Check the current inputs
Use the odds, RTP, fees, bonus terms or other values currently shown by the operator or market.
Free bet hedge: SNR value, equal-profit stake and execution risk
A stake-not-returned free bet has a different payoff from a cash bet because the promotional stake is not returned on a win. The usable win-side amount is free-bet value × (decimal odds − 1).
An equal-profit hedge places cash on the opposite outcome so the two net scenarios are approximately equal. The calculation is about conversion mechanics, not about predicting which side wins.
Why SNR changes the hedge formula
A 100 free bet at 3.00 produces 200 of win-side proceeds, not 300, because the 100 promotional stake is not returned. Treating it like cash overstates the amount available to balance the hedge.
Equal profit versus maximum upside
A smaller hedge leaves more upside if the free-bet side wins but less protection if it loses. Equal-profit hedging chooses balance rather than the maximum possible result on one branch.
Settlement and price movement can break the model
The two bets must cover mutually exclusive outcomes with compatible settlement. Voids, pushes, changing odds, limits, commission, tax and different market rules can make the realised conversion differ from the calculator.
Questions about this calculation
Is a free bet the same as cash?
No. For stake-not-returned offers only the winnings, not the original token amount, are paid on a win.
Does hedging guarantee the stated return?
Only under the stated two-outcome settlement assumptions and if both bets are accepted at the entered odds. Terms and prices can change.
When is Free Bet and Hedge Calculator the right tool?
Calculate the cash hedge needed to equalize two possible outcomes for a stake-not-returned free bet.
How should I read the result from Free Bet and Hedge Calculator?
A 100-unit stake-not-returned free bet at 3.00 creates 200 units of profit if it wins. At 2.00 opposing odds, a 100-unit cash hedge gives 100 units of net profit in either outcome.
What can Free Bet and Hedge Calculator not tell me?
This covers a binary, exhaustive and mutually exclusive market. Stakes are not returned on free-bet wins. It excludes stake-returned tokens, fees, taxes, exchange commissions, bonus expiry, voids, pushes and mismatched settlement rules.