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Sticky Bonus Wagering & EV Calculator
Model a sticky casino bonus that can be used for play but is not itself withdrawable. The calculator separates required turnover, expected house-edge cost and the balance left after removing the sticky credit.
How it works & examplesUnderstand the calculation
Sticky credit is playable balance, not withdrawable cash
A sticky bonus should not be valued like ordinary cash. The model first calculates qualifying wagering and actual turnover, then applies the entered house edge to estimate the mean wagering cost.
The EV estimate matters only after you know how much qualifying turnover the terms require; verify it with Bonus Wagering Requirements Calculator.
The projected playable balance is deposit + sticky bonus − expected loss, floored at zero. The cash-equivalent proxy then removes the sticky credit. This intentionally exposes the difference between playable balance and money that could remain after the non-withdrawable credit is removed.
True sticky-bonus EV and bust probability cannot be derived from RTP alone. They require a payout distribution, bet sizing and exact balance/forfeiture rules.
Expected loss divided by the cash deposit can still be used as a transparent exposure ratio, but it is not the probability of losing that percentage. The visual path shows a mean-loss trajectory so users can see how quickly the modeled edge consumes the playable buffer without mistaking the line for a simulated session.
Maths & verification
Calculate sticky-bonus wagering, game contribution and RTP cost, then see a mean-balance cash proxy after the non-withdrawable bonus is removed.
Try the simulator below. Input values stay in your browser; no account or money is involved.
Model assumptions: No. Virtual games use declared teaching models. Verify any actual operator’s payout rules independently.
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How to use the tool
Use this for a conventional sticky bonus: the promotional credit can support play, but the credit itself is removed before cash withdrawal.
- Enter cash deposit and sticky bonus.
- Choose whether wagering applies to bonus only or deposit + bonus, then enter contribution and RTP.
- Compare required turnover, expected loss, projected playable balance and the cash-equivalent proxy after sticky removal.
Understanding your result
Example: deposit 100 + sticky bonus 100, 20× bonus-only wagering, 100% contribution and 96% RTP. Actual turnover is 2,000 and expected house-edge loss is 80. Mean playable balance projects to 120; after removing the 100 sticky credit, the cash proxy is 20.
Scope and limitations
This is not true cashout EV or probability of ruin. RTP supplies only a mean return. True sticky-bonus EV needs the payout distribution, bet sizing, balance ordering, max-bet rules, caps, forfeiture rules and the probability of surviving to completion.
Before you rely on the result
- How the calculation works
Formulas, assumptions, rounding and model limits are documented on the methodology page.
- Check the current inputs
Use the odds, RTP, fees, bonus terms or other values currently shown by the operator or market.
Sticky bonus EV: why non-withdrawable credit is not cash
A sticky bonus changes the question. The promotional credit can enlarge the playable balance, but if the credit itself is removed before withdrawal, bonus face value is not cash value.
This calculator therefore shows two layers: the arithmetic needed to complete wagering and a mean-balance proxy after the sticky credit is removed. It deliberately does not call that proxy true cashout EV.
Wagering and contribution still determine the workload
Nominal qualifying wagering equals the selected base multiplied by the wagering requirement. Actual turnover divides that qualifying target by game contribution. A 100 sticky bonus at 20× needs 2,000 turnover at 100% contribution but 10,000 at 20% contribution.
RTP prices expected cost, not survival
At 96% RTP the modeled house edge is 4%. Two thousand units of turnover therefore carry 80 units of expected loss. Starting with 100 cash + 100 sticky credit gives a linear mean-balance projection of 120 after wagering. Removing the non-withdrawable 100 leaves a 20-unit cash proxy.
Why true sticky-bonus EV needs more than RTP
The actual value depends on whether the bankroll survives the wagering path and on how wins and losses are distributed. RTP alone does not identify E[max(balance − sticky credit, 0)]. Bet size, volatility, balance ordering, max-bet rules, caps and forfeiture can materially change the result.
Model a sticky bonus separately from cash
Use this when
The bonus credit can support play but is removed before withdrawal, and you know wagering, contribution and RTP assumptions.
Read the result like this
Read the cash-equivalent figure only as a mean-loss proxy after sticky removal; it is deliberately different from playable balance.
Common mistake
Treating sticky credit as withdrawable cash, or treating RTP as a survival probability, overstates value.
Questions about this calculation
Why can a 100 sticky bonus have a much lower cash proxy?
Because the bonus credit itself is not withdrawable in this model. It can absorb play, but only balance above the sticky credit is treated as cash-equivalent at the end.
Is the projected balance an average bankroll path?
No. It is a linear expected-loss proxy. Real paths are volatile and can hit zero before the wagering target is completed.
When is Sticky Bonus Wagering & EV Calculator the right tool?
Use this for a conventional sticky bonus: the promotional credit can support play, but the credit itself is removed before cash withdrawal.
How should I read the result from Sticky Bonus Wagering & EV Calculator?
Example: deposit 100 + sticky bonus 100, 20× bonus-only wagering, 100% contribution and 96% RTP. Actual turnover is 2,000 and expected house-edge loss is 80. Mean playable balance projects to 120; after removing the 100 sticky credit, the cash proxy is 20.
What can Sticky Bonus Wagering & EV Calculator not tell me?
This is not true cashout EV or probability of ruin. RTP supplies only a mean return. True sticky-bonus EV needs the payout distribution, bet sizing, balance ordering, max-bet rules, caps, forfeiture rules and the probability of surviving to completion.