Prediction Markets / Exit decision
Sell Now vs Hold Prediction Market Calculator
Enter your average entry, available bid, quantity, selling costs and subjective YES probability. Compare future cash from selling against expected settlement.
Your inputs
Manual model only. Check current market rules, fee schedule, liquidity and settlement terms.
How to use this calculator: Exit decision
Enter your average entry, available bid, quantity, selling costs and subjective YES probability. Compare future cash from selling against expected settlement.
Worked example: 100 shares bought at $0.40 and sold at $0.65 generate $25 profit before fees. At a 70% belief, holding has $30 expected net profit.
Important limitation
Holding EV ignores liquidity, time value, opportunity cost, settlement disputes, and outcome correlation.
Manual model only. Check current market rules, fee schedule, liquidity and settlement terms.
A sale offer is not the last traded price
Use an actual bid large enough to match your position. Selling 100 contracts at a displayed bid with only ten available may not achieve the model outcome.
This is an opportunity-cost comparison. The output is driven by your own probability and an executable bid, so the key question is whether the cash available now is worth more than the expected settlement value you assign.
A quoted bid is not always available for the whole position. Check order-book slippage before comparing sale proceeds.
Make your probability assumption explicit
If your chance estimate is 70%, holding 100 binary YES contracts has a $70 gross expected settlement receipt. That does not mean you will receive $70.
Related calculations
FAQ
Does an unrealized gain mean selling is best?
Not necessarily. Compare the net executable bid with your probability-weighted settlement cash, and account for uncertainty and time.
What bid price should I use?
Use a price and quantity that could actually be matched. The last traded price is not necessarily an executable bid for your size.
Why is the original entry cost treated as sunk?
For the choice between selling now and holding, both options already share the original purchase. Future receipts determine the incremental comparison.
Important limitation
Holding EV ignores liquidity, time value, opportunity cost, settlement disputes, and outcome correlation.
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