Prediction Markets / Portfolio concentration
Prediction Market Portfolio Risk Calculator
Enter positions with price, quantity, probability and one explicit scenario outcome for each. Review capital at risk and largest exposure.
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Manual model only. Check current market rules, fee schedule, liquidity and settlement terms.
How to use this calculator: Portfolio concentration
Enter positions with price, quantity, probability and one explicit scenario outcome for each. Review capital at risk and largest exposure.
Worked example: Two 100-share positions at $0.40 and $0.70 require $110 before fees. If both lose, the simple scenario loses $110.
Important limitation
Joint best/worst figures can be impossible if events are mutually exclusive. No covariance, settlement offset or margin model.
Manual model only. Check current market rules, fee schedule, liquidity and settlement terms.
One scenario is not a probability distribution
The chosen outcome in each row shows a single hypothetical state of the world. Summing subjective win probabilities does not produce a portfolio risk model.
This is a scenario exposure tool, not a covariance model. Use it to find concentration and capital at risk, then manually question whether several positions depend on the same underlying event.
Before adding several event positions, calculate profit per contract using the same purchase-cost conventions.
Concentration is only a first check
Several smaller positions on effectively the same event can be more concentrated than their individual purchase amounts suggest.
Related calculations
FAQ
Can several YES positions all lose together?
Yes, depending on their event definitions. A separate probability for each does not show how outcomes depend on one another.
Is the sum of maximum profits a realistic scenario?
Not always. Related or mutually exclusive event outcomes can make the all-win scenario mathematically impossible.
What does the concentration percentage measure?
It is the largest individual purchase cost divided by total amount invested. It is not a correlation-adjusted measure of risk.
Important limitation
Joint best/worst figures can be impossible if events are mutually exclusive. No covariance, settlement offset or margin model.
Kalshi portfolio and positions · Polymarket positions and settlement