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No Sweat Bet / Bet Insurance EV Calculator
Model a sportsbook loss-refund promotion with your stake, odds and win probability. Compare cash refunds with bonus-bet refunds converted at your chosen cash-equivalent rate.
How it works & examplesUnderstand the calculation
How No Sweat Bet insurance EV is calculated
Eligible refund face value = min(stake, cap) × refund percentage, with cap ignored when set to zero. Cash-equivalent refund is the face value for cash refunds, or face value × bonus-bet conversion rate for promotional-credit refunds.
If a loss refund is issued as a bonus bet rather than cash, its real value needs a separate conversion in Bonus Bet / Bet Credit Conversion Calculator.
Baseline expected P/L = p × stake × odds − stake. Expected promo value = (1 − p) × cash-equivalent refund because the refund is only received when the insured bet loses.
Insured break-even probability solves expected P/L = 0 after including the loss refund: (stake − refund value) / (stake × odds − refund value).
The insurance is valuable only in the outcomes that actually qualify for a refund. Verify whether pushes, voids, cash-outs, parlays or early settlement break eligibility, and discount promotional-credit refunds by the value you can realistically convert before expiry.
Maths & verification
Calculate the expected value of a loss refund, including cash vs bonus-bet refund, cap, refund percentage and bonus-credit conversion rate.
Try the simulator below. Input values stay in your browser; no account or money is involved.
Model assumptions: No. Virtual games use declared teaching models. Verify any actual operator’s payout rules independently.
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How to use the tool
Measure what a “no sweat” or bet-insurance offer adds to a normal wager after accounting for refund type and cap.
- Enter the cash stake, decimal odds and your own estimated win probability.
- Set the refund percentage and maximum refundable stake. Choose cash refund or bonus-bet refund; for bonus credit, enter the cash-equivalent conversion rate you expect to realize.
- Compare baseline EV, insured EV, expected promo value and the new break-even win probability.
Understanding your result
A 100 stake at 2.00 with a 100% loss refund capped at 100 has refund face value 100. If the refund is a bonus bet worth 70% in cash-equivalent terms, the loss outcome is worth 70 instead of 0. At a 48% win estimate, expected promo value is 0.52 × 70 = 36.40, moving EV from −4.00 to +32.40.
Scope and limitations
The refund normally applies only after a settled loss and may arrive as restricted promotional credit. Pushes, voids, partial refunds, expiry, minimum odds, excluded markets, same-game parlays, taxes and bonus-bet conversion conditions are not automatically modeled.
Before you rely on the result
- How the calculation works
Formulas, assumptions, rounding and model limits are documented on the methodology page.
- Check the current inputs
Use the odds, RTP, fees, bonus terms or other values currently shown by the operator or market.
No Sweat Bet calculator: refund value, bonus-credit conversion and EV
A “no sweat” bet is not automatically a risk-free bet. The value depends on how much of the stake is refundable, whether the refund is cash or promotional credit, and what that credit is realistically worth.
This calculator separates refund face value from cash-equivalent value so a 100 bonus-bet refund is not silently treated as 100 cash.
Cash refund and bonus-bet refund are different assets
A cash refund can be valued at face amount in this simplified model. A bonus-bet refund needs a conversion assumption because promotional stake may not be returned and may carry restrictions.
The refund cap changes large-stake economics
If a promotion refunds up to 50 and you wager 200, only 50 is insured before conversion. The other 150 remains fully exposed.
Insurance lowers the break-even win probability
Because the losing outcome is softened by refund value, the win probability needed for zero expected P/L falls. The exact change depends on odds, refund amount and refund quality.
Questions about this calculation
Why is a bonus-bet refund not worth 100% of face value?
If the refunded stake is promotional credit, its cash value depends on how efficiently that credit can be converted. The calculator therefore asks for a conversion rate rather than treating it as cash.
Why does the cap matter?
Only the eligible portion of the losing stake is refunded. A 200 stake with a 100 refund cap has at most 100 of refund face value before any conversion discount.
When is No Sweat Bet / Bet Insurance EV Calculator the right tool?
Measure what a “no sweat” or bet-insurance offer adds to a normal wager after accounting for refund type and cap.
How should I read the result from No Sweat Bet / Bet Insurance EV Calculator?
A 100 stake at 2.00 with a 100% loss refund capped at 100 has refund face value 100. If the refund is a bonus bet worth 70% in cash-equivalent terms, the loss outcome is worth 70 instead of 0. At a 48% win estimate, expected promo value is 0.52 × 70 = 36.40, moving EV from −4.00 to +32.40.
What can No Sweat Bet / Bet Insurance EV Calculator not tell me?
The refund normally applies only after a settled loss and may arrive as restricted promotional credit. Pushes, voids, partial refunds, expiry, minimum odds, excluded markets, same-game parlays, taxes and bonus-bet conversion conditions are not automatically modeled.